Let’s flip a coin

maybe you know the game of coin flipping (Wikipedia (english))

It’s about statistics, mathematics, probability, physics, …

When you throw a coin you would expect it to either land on one or the other side. Throw it a hundred times and there should be a 50% chance you might guess the outcome.

Yes, should.

But what happens if it will not land on either side but on the edge?

You count it as edge, but still throw it 100 times and the results for the sides are not 50% anymore

Side A = 49/100 = 49%
Side B = 50/100 = 50%
edge = 1/100 = 1%

And what if you do not count it and throw again for 100 times?

Side A = 50/100 = 50%
Side B = 50/100 = 50%

but wait … where is the edge? And why are we throwing 101 times? So we must adjust the numbers

Side A = 50/101 = 49,5%
Side B = 50/101 = 49,5%
invalid = 1/101 = 0,99% so we round it up to 1%

So let’s flip again … Did you read the wikipedia-article above? Remember section „Coin landing on its edge in fiction„?

Well that chance is 1 to 6000 meaning 0,016% … a lot less than the 1% above.

As you see, it is sometimes hard to put numbers in relation. A so called fifty-fifty chance might not be really what you think it is. Whenever presenting numbers I will try to provide you with the raw data so you can play with the numbers on your own. Your mileage may vary depending on the point ov view.